Staff Reporter

This Is How Far US Home Prices Could Fall — and When

December 1, 2022 by Staff Reporter

As demand fades in the housing market, price cuts have become widespread.
Insider asked several experts about how far they think prices will fall in 2023.
Most say that larger cuts are on the way but that they do not fear a severe downturn.

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Throughout much of the pandemic, an unusually high demand for housing had pushed US home prices soaring. But as a combination of surging inflation and higher mortgage interest rates put a strain on budgets, home-buying activity has been increasingly cooling off — and it’s translated to fewer home sales and the largest wave of price cuts since the Great Recession.

Indeed, prospective buyers are seeing more discounts. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, home prices fell by 1% in September — the most recent month for home price data — marking the third consecutive month of declines. However, despite more sellers cutting asking prices, home prices have still increased by 10.6% year-over-year.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be more expensive and housing becomes less affordable,” S&P analysts wrote. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”

While experts have maintained that home prices are unlikely to plummet in a similar fashion to the housing boom of the mid-aughts, evidence is mounting that the current housing downturn is growing more severe by the day.

To get a sense of how far US home prices could fall, Insider compiled commentary and forecasts from experts in the worlds of investing and housing. Here’s where they think prices will land in 2023:

Goldman Sachs

Global investment firm Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecast for US home prices in a note from October and now projects them to fall between 5% to 10% from the peak prices seen earlier this year. The firm had previously predicted a less severe drop in housing prices but says that it had updated its projection due to increased interest rates. The Goldman note also adds that further declines will be attributed to higher housing costs as “unsustainable levels of housing affordability” will continue to weigh on housing demand.

“Housing is a risk to economic growth in all G-10 countries,” Goldman’s researchers wrote. “The model’s forecasts are slightly more negative than in September because actual and forecasted interest rates have increased, their estimates for economic growth in North American have fallen and home prices have missed expectations.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at National Association of Realtors

Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors anticipates widespread home price declines in 2023, but does not believe they will be severe. It’s a sentiment he shares with colleague Nadia Evangelu, senior economist with the NAR.

According to Yun, insufficient inventory levels are likely to keep home prices elevated in about half of the country, while the other half sees declines as large as 10%. Overall, he forecasts home price growth will stagnate next year.

“Inventory levels are still tight, which is why some homes for sale are still receiving multiple offers,” Yun said in a November housing report. “In October, 24% of homes received over the asking price. Conversely, homes sitting on the market for more than 120 days saw prices reduced by an average of 15.8%.”

Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates

As long as mortgage rates remain elevated, Ivy Zelman, who has long had a more sober perspective on the housing market, believes that demand will continue to shrink in the US housing market — ultimately resulting in steeper price cuts. For 2023, Zelman predicts that prices could fall as much as 20%.

However, in markets without supply constraints — like the midwestern and northeastern states — she says that declines could be “in the mid singles.”

“If we don’t see any type of improvement in the economy and rates are stubbornly higher than 6%, I think you are going to see pricing continue to decline,” Zelman said in a recent interview with Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors.

Doug Duncan, vice president and senior economist at Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae has revised its 2023 home price growth forecast due to slower home sales. Instead of prices growing 4.4% like they predicted back in July, the organization now expects them to fall 1.5% year-over-year. On an annual basis, Fannie Mae says house price growth will turn negative beginning in the second-quarter of 2023.

“The HPSI reached an all-time survey low this month, in line with expectations that the housing market will continue to cool in the months ahead,” Duncan said in an October housing report. “Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about both homebuying and home-selling conditions.”

Sam Khater, senior economist at Freddie Mac

Freddie Mac’s quarterly forecast indicates that rates will play the largest role in determining the trajectory of home prices in 2023. It all comes down to the fact that many homebuyers are facing borrowing costs that have more than doubled in the past year.

According to Freddie Mac’s Sam Khater, house price growth will average 6.7% in 2022 and then decline by 0.2% in 2023.

“Mortgage rates have increased at the fastest rate in four decades, quickly taking the wind out of the sails of the housing market,” Khater said in the report, adding that as buyer activity continues to contract, the organization expects “the combination of much lower demand and higher supply will cause home prices to decrease during the next year.”

Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow

Data from real estate brokerage Zillow shows that housing demand in the US has likely fallen by more than 30% in the past year. Zillow’s Orphe Divounguy says the shift is likely to pull prices down even lower next year — especially in markets like Phoenix and Denver where builders and developers have introduced an abundance of inventory.

However, he says that buyers won’t see any dramatic price cuts in 2023. “The price adjustment is going to be very slow,” Divounguy told Insider. “The reason why is because existing homeowners have pulled back. New listings are down.”

“You’re not going to see that huge price adjustment that everybody is hoping to see,” he added.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers

Jose Torres of Interactive Brokers has a bleak outlook for the US real estate market. With inventory levels at all-time lows, he believes supply and demand dynamics will give way to significant price declines nationwide.

On a July call, Torres told Insider he believes that US home prices could drop by as much as 25% by the second half of 2023. His bearish outlook is attributed to the nation’s housing affordability crisis which he says has created a housing ecosystem where there are “no buyers in sight.”

“In a similar fashion to the months leading up to the 2008 real estate market debacle, the percentage of average monthly payments to household income and personal income have been at record high levels throughout this year, which is creating demand for rental units among Americans who can’t afford homes,” Torres said.

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U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

December 1, 2022 by Staff Reporter

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Putin’s winter of inhumanity takes Ukraine war and US aid to a new level

December 1, 2022 by Staff Reporter

CNN
—

By bombing the power grid meant to sustain Ukrainians through dark, cold months, Vladimir Putin is inflicting some of the most barbaric wartime conditions experienced by civilians in Europe for decades.

The use of winter as a weapon of war is designed to break the will of a nation that has humbled Russian forces – and to test the generosity of Western publics footing the bill for Ukraine’s defense. And it is forcing President Joe Biden and other leaders to make another round of adjustments to the lifeline of armaments and aid sustaining Ukraine’s resistance.

The intensity of Moscow’s deliberate targeting of civilians has also revived questions over if and when the world should press for a diplomatic end to the war as well as a rising domestic political debate about how long multi-billion dollar aid must last. This pressure, notably inside the incoming Republican House majority, often spikes alongside Putin’s calculated spurts of nuclear brinkmanship and whenever fears rise that the war will spill into NATO territory.

These questions will be at the center of talks Thursday between Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, the two most critical leaders of the West, who will be essential to any eventual ceasefire and who have at times differed on whether diplomacy can work with a leader as ruthless as Putin.

If anything, Biden’s determination to help Ukraine win the war on the battlefield is only growing even as Macron, who has been more open to the possibility of diplomatic efforts, keeps open a channel with the Russian leader.

As it has throughout the war, the administration is constantly recalibrating its aid based on new conditions. CNN’s Oren Liebermann, Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood first reported Wednesday that Biden is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing up to 2,500 soldiers a month in Germany. The drills would cover more sophisticated battlefield tactics including on how to coordinate military maneuvers with artillery support.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN Wednesday that NATO is seeking to invest in Soviet-era weapons and ammunition for Ukraine’s forces. And he told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that Washington was also focused on providing air defense systems. CNN reported Tuesday the US was considering sending Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine – in what would be yet another threshold crossed by the White House. Germany has pledged more anti-aircraft tanks. Several nations are sending in generators after Russian missile and drone attacks took out electricity facilities. Vast stocks of fuel will also be needed.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that he detected new urgency from Western donors but that they needed to supply everything his country needed as quickly as it is needed. “These decisions have been taken after some kind of tragedy took place on the frontline, which left no other choice but for this decision to be taken.”

In recent days, expressing resolve ahead of Macron’s visit, US officials have been using graphic language to describe the depravity of Putin’s tactics, which hark back to World War II bombardments of civilians and are creating the worst human suffering in a European conflict since the 1990s in Bosnia.

“Heat, water, electricity, for children, for the elderly, for the sick — these are President Putin’s new targets. He’s hitting them hard,” Blinken said at a press conference at the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Bucharest. “This brutalization of Ukraine’s people is barbaric.”

John Kirby, the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, said Putin’s record meant there was no surprise about the new twist in his war. “This is a guy who’s used food as a weapon. He’s used fear as a weapon. Now … he’s using the coming cold weather here to basically try to bring the Ukrainian people to their knees,” Kirby said on Monday.

“When you take a look at what he’s hitting, it’s almost all civilian infrastructure. … It’s energy, it’s water, it’s the kind of resources that people need as they get ready to brace for what will no doubt be a cold winter.”

The suffering of the Ukrainian people in the months to come and the ever larger sums needed to support them – Biden just asked Congress for another $37 billion – are likely to increase political debate in the US and allied nations about whether it’s time to look for a way out of the war. At least that is what Putin is clearly banking on – and its why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his wife Olena Zelenska, who addressed British lawmakers Tuesday, keep up a constant public relations offensive.

Still, reflecting a more difficult political climate for Ukraine in Washington, the possible next Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy warned again after meeting Biden on Tuesday that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine.

The California Republican is under fierce pressure from pro-Donald Trump lawmakers, who will have significant leverage in his small House majority, to divert funds intended for Ukraine to increase security on the US southern border. At midterm election campaign events, the former president also complained about US generosity to a country that he dragged into his first impeachment. And one of his top followers, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has called on the US to force Ukraine to negotiate a peace with Putin.

But Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, warned on Wednesday that Putin was betting on just such a weakening of Western resolve. “If we don’t sustain, that would not be in the interest of America or the world,” he said.

Speculation about how the war might end is not just being sparked by the sense that it will be harder next year for Biden to sustain the current level of US funding. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley caused a stir when he appeared to argue earlier this month that Russia and Ukraine would have to recognize victory was impossible as the front locked down for winter. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley said.

A week after those comments, which reverberated from the US across the Atlantic, Milley suggested that there was a possibility of a political solution – involving a Russian withdrawal – because Ukraine was in a position of strength. Still, a full withdrawal appears still to be the kind of humiliation that Putin may not be able to bear politically, so the incentive for him to grind on – no matter how many Russians and Ukrainians die – is still alive. Washington has consistently said that there can be no negotiations over the heads of Ukrainians, and given their battlefield success, including the recent expulsion of Russian forces from the southern city of Kherson, Kyiv’s willingness to talk, as Western-provided military material flows across the border, may be limited.

Kirby suggested on Monday that the way the war would end would be with a Ukrainian victory. He pledged Washington would “give Ukraine the tools and capabilities they need to succeed on the battlefield so this war can end … in a way in which Ukraine can be whole and sovereign and free.”

While the new House may be shaky on Ukraine next year, the Biden administration still appears to have strong support on the issue among Senate Republicans. Risch said that while he’d do some things differently, “They are committed deeply, they’re working closely with our allies and they’ve got contingency plans for things that might go awry.”

This new phase of the Ukrainian war means that remarks by Biden and Macron at the White House will be watched intensely around the world. There is a major incentive for both to create a strong impression of unity.

The French president has become Washington’s most important European point of contact. He’s the key leader in the European Union, especially after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s retirement and the political paroxysms and exit from the EU that have made Britain a less prominent global player.

But France and the US have not always been on the same page. While Paris is closely allied with Washington, it has long pursued an independent foreign policy that can sometimes irk US officials. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even during the war, Macron has kept in touch with Putin. He has warned that the Russian leader should not be humiliated since he’d be less likely to talk peace. Some former high-ranking Western officials, like ex-NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen have claimed that Macron’s efforts at diplomacy have only weakened Western unity on the conflict. But speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in September, the French president vowed to continue speaking to Putin and warned that the longer the conflict drags on, the more it would threaten European and world peace. But he also appeared to stiffen his tone toward Russia, accusing it of seeking to return the world to an age of imperialism.

“Negotiations will only be possible if, sovereignly, Ukraine wants it and Russia agrees to it in good faith. We all know as well that negotiations will only be successful if Ukraine’s sovereignty is respected, its territory liberated, and its security protected,” Macron said.

Given that even the French president’s conditions for talks are still out of sight, there is little prospect for peace negotiations soon. That means the grinding winter of hellish suffering for Ukrainian citizens will go on. And the need for US and allied aid will only get more acute, even as a political debate stirs about how much more the American people can afford.

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New research helps explain the progression of Alzheimer’s disease and predicts its severity — ScienceDaily

November 30, 2022 by Staff Reporter

Alzheimer’s disease has always had its puzzles and contradictions. For Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researcher Vladislav Petyuk, whose research on the progressive, age-related disease spans over a decade, some of the struggles have come from studies where “we can only connect the dots a pair at a time.”

Petyuk’s research touches multiple areas in biological and computational science at PNNL. He has produced dozens of publications on Alzheimer’s disease. But now he sees the needle moving in the right direction.

“Over the last 10 years,” Petyuk said, “research has been moving away from a single drug target towards focusing more on the proteins that have a role in cognitive resilience.”

Cognitive resilience is a measure of the brain’s ability to continue to work even with a high Alzheimer’s disease neuropathology that would normally produce the hallmark dementia. This means that, in some people, the brain shows the symptoms of the disease, but it does not impact the person’s ability to function. What makes some brains sensitive, and some resilient, is an open question.

Petyuk recently collaborated with a multi-institutional team in a study that examined a large Alzheimer’s disease cohort of over 1800 people. The researchers drew on previously collected blood samples and brain tissue, along with large-scale data analysis to search for central themes in early identification, prevention, and treatment of the disease.

The research findings published in Science Advances (November 2022), help explain the progression of Alzheimer-related dementia in each patient. Further, the findings outline a multilevel biological classification system that predicts disease severity and future neurological symptoms. “Assessment of a patient’s brain and blood proteins, and other biological molecules, reveal patterns that can then be targeted for tailored intervention,” said Petyuk.

The discovery is particularly timely, as November is Alzheimer’s disease awareness month. In the United States, 5.4 million people aged 65 and older live with Alzheimer’s disease. The numbers grow annually as the population ages.

The right tools, at the right time, in the right place

These types of large-scale studies, exploring proteins and protein-related data are often called proteomics studies.

Proteomics research at PNNL involves, among other things, the ability to analyze very large data sets. Examining, identifying, and discovering proteins can answer specific biological questions about their role in the disease, as well as identifying multiple new drug targets in the fight against Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias.

Leveraging PNNL’s advanced proteomics platform capabilities to answer these big questions to fill in the knowledge gaps, Petyuk has contributed to six published research studies in this year alone. The work validates the power of discovery in the proteomics platform at PNNL, as well as the power in the collaborative efforts of Petyuk’s colleagues from all over the world.

Putting together pieces of the Alzheimer’s puzzle

Some symptoms of the disease are due to the misfolding of proteins. Proteins need to have a specific shape to function correctly, and much like baking a cake, changing the recipe can result in a misshapen product. Alzheimer’s disease can cause protein recipes to change. This research adds to the emerging body of work on proteins involved in cognitive decline that are associated with the disease. These proteins may indicate potential new targets for drug therapies.

Even with such a large body of work, the puzzle still only gets put together one piece at a time, with lots of smaller parts that make sense, but a yet-to-be-discovered larger view. Petyuk, along with team lead Yasser Iturria-Medina at the Montreal Neurological Institute of the McGill University, continue work that adds to our understanding of a complex and devastating disease. This promises new discoveries, and new pieces to add to the puzzle of Alzheimer’s disease.

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If EPS Growth Is Important To You, National Retail Properties (NYSE:NNN) Presents An Opportunity

November 30, 2022 by Staff Reporter

It’s common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story even if these companies are loss-making. Sometimes these stories can cloud the minds of investors, leading them to invest with their emotions rather than on the merit of good company fundamentals. Loss making companies can act like a sponge for capital – so investors should be cautious that they’re not throwing good money after bad.

If this kind of company isn’t your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in National Retail Properties (NYSE:NNN). Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

View our latest analysis for National Retail Properties

How Quickly Is National Retail Properties Increasing Earnings Per Share?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you’d expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. We can see that in the last three years National Retail Properties grew its EPS by 7.1% per year. That might not be particularly high growth, but it does show that per-share earnings are moving steadily in the right direction.

One way to double-check a company’s growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. EBIT margins for National Retail Properties remained fairly unchanged over the last year, however the company should be pleased to report its revenue growth for the period of 8.5% to US$762m. That’s progress.

The chart below shows how the company’s bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

NYSE:NNN Earnings and Revenue History November 30th 2022

While we live in the present moment, there’s little doubt that the future matters most in the investment decision process. So why not check this interactive chart depicting future EPS estimates, for National Retail Properties?

Are National Retail Properties Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$8.1b company like National Retail Properties. But we are reassured by the fact they have invested in the company. Holding US$65m worth of stock in the company is no laughing matter and insiders will be committed in delivering the best outcomes for shareholders. That’s certainly enough to let shareholders know that management will be very focussed on long term growth.

It’s good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. Our analysis has discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like National Retail Properties with market caps between US$4.0b and US$12b is about US$8.2m.

National Retail Properties’ CEO took home a total compensation package of US$3.2m in the year prior to December 2021. That’s clearly well below average, so at a glance that arrangement seems generous to shareholders and points to a modest remuneration culture. While the level of CEO compensation shouldn’t be the biggest factor in how the company is viewed, modest remuneration is a positive, because it suggests that the board keeps shareholder interests in mind. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Is National Retail Properties Worth Keeping An Eye On?

As previously touched on, National Retail Properties is a growing business, which is encouraging. The growth of EPS may be the eye-catching headline for National Retail Properties, but there’s more to bring joy for shareholders. Boasting both modest CEO pay and considerable insider ownership, you’d argue this one is worthy of the watchlist, at least. Even so, be aware that National Retail Properties is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…

There’s always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether National Retail Properties is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Youtube personality “Meet Kevin” debuts active equity ETF | ETF Strategy

November 30, 2022 by Staff Reporter

Kevin Paffrath, a 30-year-old real estate broker, investment advisor, and Youtube influencer, has introduced an actively managed ETF on NYSE Arca.

Kevin Paffrath’s “Meet Kevin” Youtube channel has over 1.8 million subscribers.

Paffrath’s Youtube channel “Meet Kevin” offers a mix of real estate and general investment advice and boasts more than 1.8 million subscribers.

The channel’s most popular videos are currently “How to Buy Your First Rental Property (Noob vs Pro)”, 1.9 million views; “How to Retire in 7 Years Starting w/ $100 [The Rule of 200]”, 1.6 million views; and “How I Turned $10,500 into $210,000 at 19 (in 90 days) [Beginner Real Estate]”, also 1.6 million views.

While Kevin Paffrath has a devoted following, he has also drawn criticism, most notably for promoting the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX for which he received compensation.

FTX, which was valued at around $32 billion at the start of November, completely imploded over a period of ten days with the firm filing for bankruptcy protection on 11 November. The catalyst of FTX’s downfall was a report highlighting potential leverage and solvency concerns which led to a liquidity crisis on the exchange as customers rapidly tried to withdraw their money.

The ETF

The Meet Kevin Pricing Power ETF (PP US), which has been brought to market in partnership with Toroso Investments, invests primarily in US-listed companies developing and utilizing disruptive technologies to displace mature industries.

Disruptive technology has been one of the most popular investment themes for ETF product developers in recent years. Themes that fit this profile typically include artificial intelligence, autonomous and electric vehicles, climate change technologies, cloud computing, cybersecurity, e-commerce, online education, fintech, 5G and the internet of things, healthcare innovation, robotics, artificial intelligence, social media, and video games and e-sports, among others.

The ETF seeks out companies aligned with disruptive technology themes such as these, investing in firms that are considered to possess significant pricing power compared to their competitors.

According to the fund’s prospectus, the ETF may also invest up to 30% of its assets in ETFs that are designed to offer protection against certain macroeconomic risks such as inflation or interest rates.

The ETF comes with an expense ratio of 0.77%.

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Scanlan Theodore’s Melinda Robertson on preparing for an ‘inevitable’ recession

November 30, 2022 by Staff Reporter

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When Melinda Roberston moved to the U.S. to work on Wall Street in 2012, she didn’t expect to receive high praise for her wardrobe. Unlike her American counterparts, Robertson almost exclusively wore Australian fashion brand Scanlan Theodore, which specializes in workwear for women. To her surprise, however, Scanlan Theodore’s chic aesthetic was a hit, and it led Robertson and her business partner, Sarah Blank, to approach Gary Theodore, the brand’s founder, with a pitch: to launch the company in the U.S.

“[Scanlan Theodore Americas] was very much born out of [my and Sarah’s] personal need and the feedback we were receiving [from female bankers],” Robertson said on the latest episode of the Glossy Podcast. “One of the trickiest things [when launching in a new country] is knowing whether the product will translate. First: Is it going to translate internationally? We felt confident on that front, because all these women [on Wall Street] were so excited about our suits. Then, once you’re [in the U.S.], the question is: How is it going to translate in other states? We felt confident on one front, so we did it.”

Two years after pitching the idea to Theodore, the trio became business partners on the U.S. business in 2017. Now, as co-CEO of Scanlan Theodore Americas, Robertson is responsible for growing the brand’s presence in the American market. Currently, the company has two boutiques in New York City, plus stores in Long Island, N.Y., Miami and Dallas. A location in Washington, D.C. is set to open June 2023.

“We’ve had to be patient,” Robertson said. “We’ve secured the locations we wanted, and now we’re focused on building the brand.”

Below are additional highlights from the conversation, which have been lightly edited for clarity.

Picking a global expansion model
“It made sense for us to launch a U.S. company with the three of us [as founders]. We all needed skin in the [U.S. retail market] game. You see international brands coming in with a franchise model or brand owners [for just one] country doing whatever they want. That was not appealing to [Theodore] or for us, but for different reasons. [Theodore] built this incredible brand, and to just hand over the reins in the U.S. market to people he was just getting to know didn’t make sense. For [Sarah and I], Gary’s the genius behind the brand, so we had no desire to take over. We need his guidance, we need his partnership. We rely on that every single day. He’s the creative genius. We decided the best way to keep the three of us aligned, motivated and charging for the same objectives was to all invest. That was the model that made sense for all of us, and it has worked. … We started off selling online in the U.S. out of my apartment. Now, we’ve grown to five boutiques and an online store, and we’re opening a sixth store next year.”

Navigating the highs and lows of workwear sales
“We basically did no sales for a good six-month period in 2020. The government was really generous with all the business support that was provided, and our landlords really helped us. Honestly, we made it through because of that support from them. … [When we opened back up], it was a matter of operating the business in a different way for a significant period of time. … We had to deal with this incredible volatility, which is really difficult when you’ve got such high fixed costs. … 2020 was a great challenge. Sarah and I were on the floor trying to make it work. In 2021, things slowly picked up … It’s really been since March this year [that I’ve felt secure]. We’re [finally] well above our 2019 forecast and 2019 actuals. It’s looking to be a good year.”

Surviving the looming recession
‘We are expecting a recession and things to slow. It’s inevitable, given all of the factors that are contributing to that. We’re always extremely careful with our inventory. You need to be careful that you don’t get stuck with mountains of inventory if you get your forecasts wrong. In terms of our salary costs, we keep staffing light — if you overstaff a retail store, then none of the girls have the opportunity to maximize their own sales, and in a way, you’re taking away business from them. … Also, because the whole Covid situation was horrible, I’m always focused on not overstaffing, because you never want to have to let people go because you made a mistake. … I think the recession will be short and sharp. Whether short means 6-12 months is unclear, but we just have to put our heads down and do as many external sales events as we can possibly do. … We hold fundraisers a lot — we hustle and try and generate sales from outside of just the foot traffic that walks past the store. That will have to go into overdrive if women are not walking into the store. … We’ve got an incredible CRM program set up that [our staff] uses all day, every day. They are constantly in-store, going back and forth with clients in California or wherever. That needs to continue, and all of those efforts need to go into overdrive.”

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January 6 convictions bolster democracy, but McCarthy’s defense of Trump threatens it

November 30, 2022 by Staff Reporter

CNN
—

The American tradition of peaceful transfers of presidential power buckled in the horrific violence of January 6, 2021.

Twenty-two months on, a Washington, DC, jury shored up the breaches in the country’s democracy on Tuesday, with a monumental verdict against right-wing insurrectionists.

But while the courts – and voters in the midterm elections – have reaffirmed the rule of law, a furor over ex-President Donald Trump’s meeting with a White supremacist Holocaust denier is underlining just how fragile it remains. As does the refusal of Republican leader Kevin McCarthy – the man who would like to be House speaker – to forthrightly condemn Trump on Tuesday for breaking bread with an extremist.

In a landmark jury verdict, Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes and a subordinate, Kelly Meggs, were found guilty of seditious conspiracy and other charges in what the Justice Department said was a plot to keep Trump in power after his 2020 defeat.

The convictions for a rarely prosecuted offense delivered justice over a constitutional outrage, laid down a deterrent to future coup instigators and showed the legal system can enforce accountability for assaults on democracy.

And they reinforced the narrative that the US Capitol insurrection was not simply a too exuberant protest that spilled over but a pre-planned bid to overthrow the government, the Constitution and the will of voters. The verdicts came as Special Counsel Jack Smith presses ahead with investigations into the ex-president, including over January 6. On that front, Trump’s former close aide Stephen Miller testified to the grand jury on the matter, CNN reported.

Yet a momentous day for democracy represented by the Oath Keepers convictions also brought fresh signs that the forces of authoritarianism, extremism and election denialism are far from vanquished.

McCarthy, who is running to be speaker of the very same House ransacked by Trump’s supporters last year, shielded the ex-president from criticism over his dinner with White nationalist Nick Fuentes a week ago.

The California Republican did say Fuentes had no place in the GOP. But his false claim that Trump had condemned the far-right firebrand four times was consistent with his willingness to appease the ex-president’s incitement in order to bolster power for himself and his party. McCarthy likely needs the support of Trump, and his hard-right supporters in the House, to become speaker next year and if he gets the job, he will remain in their debt.

Fuentes is a Holocaust denier who also has links with pro-Trump House Republicans like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who spoke at a White nationalist conference he organized. Extreme lawmakers like her will be even more influential in a narrower House GOP majority. And bringing the events of the day full circle, Fuentes was on the Capitol grounds on January 6, after weeks spouting falsehoods about the election at “Stop the Steal” rallies.

Tuesday’s dramas also unfolded amid fresh signs that although voters rejected many election deniers in the midterm elections, the virus of election denialism is yet to be stamped out. A county in Arizona and one in Pennsylvania have refused to certify their results from this month as misinformation swirls and far-right activists seek to sow distrust in the system based on fraudulent claims.

Despite the US political system holding firm after the 2020 election and being reinforced by the 2022 midterms, when many pro-Trump election deniers lost in swing states, the most fateful divide in American politics remains not between left and right, but between the forces of democracy and those of authoritarianism. Almost every day in Washington can be viewed as a tug between those opposing dynamics, which sometimes cross partisan lines and are boiling to the surface again as the twice-impeached Trump seeks to recapture the presidency.

After seven weeks of testimony, Rhodes and Meggs were both convicted of seditious conspiracy and obstructing an official proceeding. Three other defendants were found guilty of a range of other charges related to the insurrection in a vindication of the DOJ’s response to the attack on democracy.

The seditious conspiracy charge is an accusation that an offender conspired to overthrow, put down or destroy by force the government of the US. Specifically, the jury’s verdict is a boost for the notion that the Justice Department can prosecute and obtain convictions on such complex charges and a rebuke of Trump world’s dismissal of the riot at the Capitol. The fact that the jury acquitted some of the defendants of the most serious charges also insulates the prosecution against any claims that it was a partisan trial before a politicized jury.

Stepping back, this court case – one of many ahead targeting alleged perpetrators of the insurrection – represents a tangible attempt to repair American democracy following the trauma of the 2020 election.

“(This) is a great day for the United States, for the rule of law, for the peaceful transfer of power and making sure that that is protected because that was essentially what was on trial,” said Juliette Kayyem, a CNN national security, intelligence and terrorism analyst. “The opposite would have been very bad, I think, not just for the Department of Justice but for incitement and violence – people would have thought that they could have gotten away with it.”

Maryland Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, who sits on the House select committee investigating the insurrection – which is expected to unveil its final report next month – said the verdicts would solidify the sense of what really happened in the traumatic weeks after the 2020 election.

“The character of January 6 is now finally sinking in to the whole country,” Raskin told CNN’s Brianna Keilar. “This was a series of events that was designed to overthrow a presidential election and essentially topple the constitutional order.”

The end of the Oath Keepers trial, combined with other convictions of January 6 rioters, reinforced a lingering question: Will there also be accountability higher up the chain – ultimately for those around Trump and the former president himself? He concocted the lie of a stolen election, which has ravaged faith in US democracy, and then told his supporters to “fight like hell” to save their country at the Capitol.

Any convictions in a related case can increase the sense of legal exposure for those also involved in a wider drama. But it remains unclear whether there is sufficient evidence or chances of a conviction to threaten Trump, at least in a legal forum.

But in a sign of the seriousness of Trump’s position, Miller testified to the grand jury Tuesday, making him the first known witness to do so since the appointment of Smith, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz reported. Miller would be in a position to understand Trump’s state of mind before rioters invaded the Capitol. As well as Trump’s role leading up to the insurrection, the special counsel is investigating the ex-president’s hoarding of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Trump has not been charged in either investigation. But both raise the extraordinary possibility that an ex-president – one who is again an active White House candidate – could be indicted. That’s a scenario that would provide the justice system with an even greater test than it faced in the Capitol insurrection, especially since Trump is claiming as a central plank of his campaign that he’s the victim of a partisan persecution.

Much of McCarthy’s appearance at the West Wing on Tuesday – after talks on the current lame duck session of the Democratic-controlled Congress with President Joe Biden and other congressional leaders – was squarely within the confines of conventional politics.

He swaggered, consistent with the Republican capture of the House earlier this month, albeit with a smaller-than-expected majority. He was combative, showing his rank-and-file members he was ready to take the White House to task and wield Republican power, setting the tone for a new divided Washington next year. And by stressing core Republican issues like the southern border and backing Twitter chief Elon Musk, he appeared to be shoring up his speakership campaign with soundbites likely to reverberate on conservative TV stations. McCarthy genuinely has a mandate to hold Biden to account – assuming he finally gets the 218 votes he needs to win the speaker’s gavel in January.

Still, his somewhat melodramatic tone might also have been designed to impress Trump if he was watching on television. McCarthy has made a choice to give license to extremism in his conference and on the part of the former president if it paves his path to power.

In his first on-camera response to Trump’s dinner with Fuentes – who was also joined by rapper Kanye West, who has changed his name to Ye – McCarthy said: “I don’t think anybody should be spending any time with Nick Fuentes. He has no place in this Republican Party.”

McCarthy’s comments were a clear repudiation of the Holocaust denier. But he wasn’t finished – and went on to blur the lines about Trump’s behavior and spread misinformation about exactly what the ex-president had said and done.

“I think President Trump came out four times and condemned him, and didn’t know who he was,” McCarthy said. The Republican leader’s statement was at best inaccurate, if not deliberately misleading. Trump has made at least four statements about his meeting with Fuentes, but mostly to claim that he didn’t know anything about him or his views before he showed up at Mar-a-Lago. Given that Fuentes was a vocal supporter of the ex-president, that’s a tough statement to believe.

“I had no idea what his views were, and they weren’t expressed at the table in our very quick dinner, or it wouldn’t have been accepted,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Digital on Tuesday. But again, he didn’t condemn Fuentes or his views, sending familiar veiled signals to far-right groups in his electoral base.

On the one hand, McCarthy’s dancing on the head of a pin was a troubling sign in someone who could soon be the third-highest ranked official in the country. But his defense of Trump and the controversy it will stir up in the media could rebound to his political benefit, since there’s nothing hardline Republicans like more than seeing their leader waging a fight with establishment Washington.

And his unwillingness to unequivocally condemn the former president for meeting the Holocaust denier shows that the strain of extremism that Trump stirs to cement his political power remains a powerful force in the GOP.

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New harvester amplifies electric power generated from human walking motion by about 90 times — ScienceDaily

November 29, 2022 by Staff Reporter

Walking can boost not only your own energy but also, potentially, the energy of your wearable electronic devices. Osaka Metropolitan University scientists made a significant advance toward self-charging wearable devices with their invention of a dynamic magnifier-enhanced piezoelectric vibration energy harvester that can amplify power generated from impulsive vibrations, such as from human walking, by about 90 times, while remaining as small as currently developed energy harvesters. The results were published in Applied Physics Letters.

These days, people carry multiple electronic devices such as smartphones, and wearable devices are expected to become increasingly widespread in the near future. The resulting demand for more efficient recharging of these devices has increased the attention paid to energy harvesting, a technology that converts energy such as heat and light into electricity that can power small devices. One form of energy harvesting called vibration energy harvesting is deemed highly practical given that it can transform the kinetic energy from vibration into electricity and is not affected by weather or climate.

A research team led by Associate Professor Takeshi Yoshimura from the Graduate School of Engineering at Osaka Metropolitan University has developed a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) piezoelectric vibration energy harvester that is only approximately 2 cm in diameter with a U-shaped metal component called a dynamic magnifier. Compared with conventional harvesters, the new harvester allows for an increase of about 90 times in the power converted from impulsive vibrations, which can be generated by human walking motion.

The team has been working on developing vibration energy harvesters that utilize the piezoelectric effect, a phenomenon in which specific types of materials produce an electric charge or voltage in response to applied pressure. So far, they have succeeded in generating microwatt-level electricity from mechanical vibrations with a constant frequency, such as those generated by motors and washing machines. However, the power generation of these harvesters drops drastically when the applied vibrations are nonstationary and impulsive, such as those generated by human walking.

Responding to this challenge, the team developed and incorporated the U-shaped vibration amplification component under the harvester. The component allowed for improvement in power generation without increasing the device size. The technology is expected to generate electric power from non-steady vibrations, including walking motion, in order to power small wearable devices such as smartphones and wireless earphones.

Professor Yoshimura concluded, “Since electronic devices are expected to become more energy-efficient, we hope that this invention will contribute to the realization of self-charging wearable devices.”

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Materials provided by Osaka Metropolitan University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Proposed Tax Credit Bill Would Spur Creation of 500,000 Affordable Homes: Nonprofit

November 29, 2022 by Staff Reporter

A coalition of nonprofits, industry trade groups, and state housing agencies is calling on Congress to pass a federal tax credit that would support the creation of 500,000 starter homes in low-income areas.

In a letter (pdf) to U.S. House and Senate leaders dated Nov. 28, the nonprofit Neighborhood Homes Coalition urged lawmakers to pass the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act by the end of the year, arguing that a shortage of affordable starter homes is helping fuel inflation and rising housing costs.

Introduced in the House and Senate last year, the bill creates a tax credit that would fund part of the development costs to build or rehabilitate half a million homes over the next decade. The program would focus on developing modestly priced, single-family homes in struggling neighborhoods with high poverty rates and dilapidated housing.

State housing finance agencies would administer the new tax credits through a competitive application process. Investors would receive credits only after the project is completed and the home is occupied by a qualified homeowner. The credit would only cover the shortfall between the market value of the home and the cost of development, so if a home sold for more than the development cost, the investor wouldn’t get the credit.

The bipartisan legislation has attracted support from 100 House members and 24 senators, according to a statement by the Neighborhood Homes Coalition. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) authored the House legislation, while Senators Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) introduced the companion bill in the Senate. The House included the legislation in its revised, $1.85 trillion Build Back Better act, which collapsed after Sen. Joe Manchin withdrew his support in December 2021.

The Neighborhood Homes Coalition is an advocacy group composed of 36 national organizations, including the American Bankers Association, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Council of State Housing Agencies. The coalition argued in its letter to lawmakers that the proposed bill would address a range of economic, racial justice, and climate goals, noting that the program would encourage “energy-efficient investment” and that 63 percent of the census tracts eligible for the tax credits under the bill are “majority minority.”

The program would foster $100 billion in new investment, create nearly 800,000 new jobs, and generate $29 billion in tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments, which is more than its federal budget coast, the coalition claimed.

Separately, 54 members of Congress led by Representatives Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) and Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) wrote a letter to House leadership calling for new provisions to expand the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) in the proposed Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act. The additional resources for LIHTC, a federal incentive program used to finance low-income housing, would support the building or preservation of more than 1.5 million affordable homes, the lawmakers said.

Greg Isaacson spent 7 years in China and Thailand researching and reporting on business and real estate in Asia, with a focus on commercial real estate in Chinese-speaking markets as well as outbound investment from China. He has also worked as a real estate research analyst in Chicago and a real estate reporter in New York.

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