Every spring, crowds flock to admire Japan’s cherry blossom — a dazzling pink and white bloom that has been revered in the country for more than a thousand years.
But the world-famous sakura plants are flowering much earlier than normal due to human-induced climate change, a new study has found.
Researchers from the Met Office in the United Kingdom and Osaka Metropolitan University in Japan say the climate crisis and urban warming have pushed forward the “peak bloom” flowering period by 11 days.
In 2021, cherry blossoms in the historic central city of Kyoto peaked on March 26 — the earliest full flowering date in 1,200 years. This year, the cherry blossoms burst into color on April 1.
The scientists, who published their findings in the journal Environmental Research Letters on May 20, said that extreme early flowering of the cherry blossoms is now more common.
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The trend of earlier peak blooms coincides with rising temperatures. Average March temperatures in Kyoto city center have increased by several degrees since pre-industrial times, under the influence of both climate change and urban warming, the scientists observed.
Part of the reason is increased urbanization. Cities tend to be warmer than surrounding rural areas because buildings and roads absorb the sun’s heat more than natural landscapes — a phenomena known as the heat island effect.
But scientists say a bigger reason is the climate crisis, in which the burning of fossil fuels has caused rising temperatures across the region and the world.
If planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions continue as they are, by the end of the century Kyoto’s cherry blossoms could start arriving even earlier — by almost another week, the study found.
“Our research shows that not only have human-induced climate change and urban warming already impacted the flowering dates of cherry blossom in Kyoto, but that extremely early flowering dates, as in 2021, are now estimated to be 15 times more likely, and are expected to occur at least once a century,” said lead author and Met Office climate scientist, Dr. Nikos Christidis.
“Such events are projected to occur every few years by 2100 when they would no longer be considered extreme.”
Earlier cherry blossoms have wider ramifications for Japan’s economy and ecology, and are a symptom of the larger climate crisis threatening ecosystems everywhere.
“Spring cherry blossom flowering is a culturally significant event in Japan,” said contributing author Yasuyuki Aono, from Osaka Metropolitan University. Spring festivals that accompany the blooms are an important contributor to the local economy, so being able to predict the bloom’s timing can be critical.
The peak bloom period lasts just a few days. During this period, hanami — Japanese for “flower viewing” — is a popular activity.
It is common for locals and tourists alike to have picnics under the cherry trees, and businesses will sometimes offer special set meals or products during the week.
Human-induced climate crisis is making Japan’s cherry blossoms bloom earlier.
Why early cherry blossoms matter
But it’s not just a matter of tourists scrambling to catch peak bloom before the petals all fall — it could have a lasting impact on entire ecosystems, and threaten the survival of many species.
The impact of rising temperatures on nature’s calendar has trickle-down effects on farming and land management practices in the country, the study said.
It also impacts plants, insects and animals, which rely heavily on each other for their development and life cycles. A change to this cycle can initiate a chain reaction, causing damage to ecosystems.
For instance, plants sense the temperature around them and if it’s warm enough for a consistent period, they start to flower and their leaves start to emerge. Similarly, higher heat can cause faster growth in insects and other animals.
Different plants and insects may respond to the rise in heat at different paces, throwing their life cycles out of sync. Whereas they once timed their growth simultaneously each spring, now flowers may bloom before insects are ready, and vice versa — meaning there may not be enough food for the insects or plants.
The change in flowering dates isn’t limited to Japan or to cherry blossoms. This year, spring came early in parts of the United Kingdom and climate change is making plants across the British Isles flower, on average, a month earlier than they used to, according to a recent study.
The same phenomenon is already happening to many crops and economically valuable plants — posing big problems for food security and farmers’ livelihoods.
Photos: Japan celebrates cherry blossoms despite pandemic
A Japanese white-eye, also known as Mejiro, drinks the nectar of a cherry blossom in Tokyo, Japan, Wednesday, March 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama)
People view blooming cherry blossoms from an open tour bus Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. Cherry blossoms, or “sakura,” are Japan’s favorite flower and usually reach their peak in late March to early April, just as the country celebrates the start of a new school and business year. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
Visitors view seasonal cherry blossoms from a pedestrian bridge in the Roppongi district, Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. People across Japan are celebrating the peak cherry blossom viewing season this week without COVID-19 restrictions in place for the first time in two years, but many people strolled under the trees to enjoy flowers and falling petals rather than drinking and eating at sit-down parties. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
People on boat view cherry blossoms in full bloom at the Chidorigafuchi palace moat in Tokyo Monday, March 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
A Japanese white-eye, also known as Mejiro, drinks the nectar of a cherry blossom in Tokyo, Japan, Wednesday, March 23, 2022. People across Japan are celebrating the peak cherry blossom viewing season this week without COVID-19 restrictions in place for the first time in two years, but many people strolled under the trees to enjoy flowers and falling petals rather than drinking and eating at sit-down parties. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama)
A man wearing a protective mask to help curb the spread of the coronavirus view the seasonal cherry blossoms at the Ueno Park Thursday, March 24, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
A visitor takes a picture under a shower of cherry blossoms in full bloom at a Shinto shrine in Tokyo, Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama)
Women wearing traditional Kimono outfits take a rickshaw ride under a canopy of the cherry blossoms in full bloom Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. People across Japan are celebrating the peak cherry blossom viewing season this week without COVID-19 restrictions in place for the first time in two years, but many people strolled under the trees to enjoy flowers and falling petals rather than drinking and eating at sit-down parties. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
People stop to take pictures as they walk under a canopy of cherry blossoms in full bloom at a park Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
Visitors stroll under a shower of cherry blossoms in full bloom at a Shinto shrine in Tokyo, Thursday, March 31, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama)
People wearing face masks stroll under cherry blossoms in full bloom at the Zojoji Buddhist temple in Tokyo Tuesday, March 29, 2022. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
People gather under cherry blossoms in full bloom at a park for a traditional flower viewing called “Hanami” to celebrate the spring season Wednesday, March 30, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
People gather to take pictures under a canopy of cherry blossoms in full bloom at a park Wednesday, March 30, 2022, in Tokyo. People across Japan are celebrating the peak cherry blossom viewing season this week without COVID-19 restrictions in place for the first time in two years, but many people strolled under the trees to enjoy flowers and falling petals rather than drinking and eating at sit-down parties. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
People wearing face masks view seasonal cherry blossoms at the Sumida Park on Monday, March 28, 2022, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
In this long exposure photo, streaks of lights indicate vehicles moving under a canopy of cherry blossoms flowers lit by street lights, in Tokyo, Monday, March 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
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